埃及证明颠覆可以很简单 中南海要失眠 (图)
《18天推倒穆巴拉克》：三妹简介BBC记者Simpson的文章

2011-02-12 23:48

Simpson给予埃及革命高度评价。他说，推翻穆巴拉克与一九八九年以苏联为首的东欧社会主义集团的垮台有着同样的历史意义。这表明一个似乎可以维持几十年的坚固的制度其实不堪一击。埃及军事独裁也表现了同样的脆弱。

他还说，一直坚持不下台的穆巴拉克为什么突然下台？有两个原因。一个原因是：一直尴尬无助、犹豫旁观的美国终于汇集了美国人的权力和影响迫使埃及军队逼穆巴拉克下台。另一个原因是：埃及军队分裂。

他最后说，埃及是五千年集权国家，以前埃及人民从没能选择他们自己的政府。今天的埃及革命会影响中东其他国家，这下子那些中东的独裁者可睡不安稳了。

三妹也说说：其实，我们这些关心埃及革命的中国人都看得很清楚。美国只要施加影响，埃及军队就会听从。但是美国却一直被埃及示威者推着走，直到穆巴拉克昨天电视讲话强硬表示不下台，激起埃及示威者的极大反弹而群起围堵总统府后，美国才急速明确表态。美国表态虽然太慢了点，不过还算及时。总算是皆大欢喜。埃及百姓这个笑啊，跳啊，还有什么比自由更令人疯狂的？穆巴拉克说什么穆斯林兄弟会是恐怖主义组织？埃及人以自己的和平行动告诉世界，埃及几百万人上街游行十八天，现在几百万人在街上狂欢，没有任何恐怖主义。看到这些和平可爱、欣喜若狂的人们，我以为我会激动地哭，但我一点都哭不出来，只是跟着电视直播里的埃及百姓笑不停。

美国下一步会帮助埃及进行真正的民主转型，这回是玩真格的了。我相信美国以后不会再犹疑不决了。哈哈--哈。高兴！

编后按：BBC专稿：《18天推倒穆巴拉克》

此文说埃及军队的中下层军人是和百姓站在一起的，示威者争取到他们的同情，这对埃及革命的成功起了决定性作用。而埃及军队的上层则支持穆巴拉克。

此文还说，当支持穆巴拉克的团伙由警方和军方送到解放广场攻击示威者时，却受到示威者更为激烈的反击。

此文还说，埃及发生的一切也说明，这里发生的事情，在世界其他国家一样可以发生。周密的计划和领导并不重要，最重要是，唯有需要具备埃及人所表现出来的勇气。

Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

By John Simpson World Affairs Editor,

11 February 2011 Last updated at 18:12 ET

BBC News, Cairo

 

Egyptians are celebrating the fall of President Mubarak after 18 days of protests

 

In its way the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak is as significant as the collapse of the Soviet bloc in Eastern Europe back in 1989.

That showed that a system which seemed to be fixed and stable and likely to endure for decades was in fact brittle and fragile. Egypt's military dictatorship has been shown to be similarly feeble.

It took just 18 days to overthrow a proud, elderly man who had pitted himself stubbornly against the will of millions of Egyptians.

Egypt's army found itself right in the middle, unwilling until the very end to force President Mubarak to go, yet deeply opposed to clearing the demonstrators out of Tahrir Square by sheer force.

 

'Military cracks' 军队分裂

So why has Mr Mubarak gone now after insisting that he would stay until the presidential elections in six or seven months time?

Two main reasons. The Americans - who had been embarrassed, helpless, onlookers - finally summoned up all their power and influence to force the Egyptian military to get rid of Mr Mubarak.

But there was something else. The military leaders realised that cracks were starting to appear in the army's structure. Many junior officers, ordinary soldiers, sided with the demonstrators. The generals backed the president who was one of their own.

 

Many soldiers sided with the demonstrators

 

There is a historical echo to this. In the 1952 revolution against the monarchy, some senior officers supported the king, while younger ones like Colonel Gamal Abdul Nasser backed the coup.

Nasser became president after sweeping his boss, General Naguib, aside. Since Nasser, there has only been two presidents in Egypt, Anwar Sadat and Hosni Mubarak.

For sixty years this country has been a military dictatorship backed by a nasty secret police force. Finally, no doubt reluctantly, the army leaders have brought Nasser's system to an end.

It would never have happened though had it not been for the tremendous fortitude of the tens of thousands of people who took control of Tahrir Square and refused to leave.

On Friday 28 January, the police attacked them with bricks, iron bars, and live ammunition.

 

They would not be budged.

When gangs of tough, determined Mubarak supporters were bussed in by the police and army to wrest control of the square from them, the demonstrators fought back with even greater ferocity.

The gangs slowly retreated and were eventually driven out of the side roads around the square - after that they disappeared altogether.

Right from the start the soldiers who were sent in to discourage the demonstrators from taking over the square showed themselves to be clearly sympathetic. That, in the end, proved decisive.

 

'Could happen anywhere'

The extraordinary scenes in Cairo tonight - with the streets, avenues, and bridges jammed with hooting cars and excited flag-waving people - are a sign of the relief and pride which the crowds now feel.

 

The US - one of Egypt's biggest allies - pressured the army to get rid of Mr Mubarak

This was a victory for them in a country where people have habitually been obliged to do what their political masters told them.

Now they have the prospect of voting for their own leader in the coming presidential election.

In Egypt's 5,000 years as a unitary state, these people have never been able to choose their government before.

Will the army let it happen? It is hard to think now that they could prevent it. The people who have taken control of their cities and their country once know how to do it again. It would be foolhardy for the army to try to stop them.

What has happened here in Egypt can happen anywhere. In Libya, in Iran, in Algeria, in Syria. It does not take leaders and it does not take a well-organised conspiracy.

It simply takes courage of the kind the demonstrators have shown in Egypt.

The leaders of dictatorships in the Middle East and way beyond should not sleep easy after this.